Saturday, 12 December 2015 22:25
Turning Young Population into Advantage
According to 2013 International Monetary Fund data, Turkey is the 17th largest economy of the world. Based on the expectations, it will rise to 16th place in 2018. In 2023, Turkish Government aims to place Turkey among the largest 10 economies of the World and increase the gross national product per capita to USD 25 thousand.
The national income per capita which was USD 3,492.- in 2002, has reached USD 10 thousand in 2008 -when the global economic crisis was experienced- and despite of the turbulence in the global finance markets it has increased to USD 10,700.- in 2013. In order for the national income per capita to reach USD 25 thousand in 2023, Turkey needs to achieve 3.5-4% growth per year.
While the increase of the national income per capita increases the number of middle income individuals, it changes the spending habits. The individuals whose income have increased increase their house, vehicle, education and social environment expenditures and own more products that need protection.
In order for the national income per capita to reach USD 25 thousand in the forthcoming ten years, Turkey needs to get out of the medium income trap. There is a long reform list ahead to achieve this target. While trying to increase the total and per capita income, it should not miss the development targets. The progresses in the development positively affect the growth performance.
With 13.7 per thousand population growth rate in 2013, Turkey has shown more than both the developed and emerging economies. In accordance with 2013 International Monetary Fund-World Economic Outlook Report data, Turkey has become the 19th most crowded country of the World with a population of 77 million. Due to the continuance of the population growth, it is envisaged that Turkey will keep its place also in 2018.
The average age in Turkey is 28,5 years. When compared with the other countries (for example USA: 36.9/ China: 35.5/Japan: 44.8/Germany: 44.9 and Russia: 38), Turkey still has a very young population. However, the population structure has started to change in the last years. The average population over the age of 65 has reached 7.7%. The birth ratio has decreased to 16.9 per thousand and number of birth per woman has declined to 2.07.
The countries in which the eldest ratio is above 10% of the population are defined as “very old”. Today Japan with a percentage of 24.4, Germany with a percentage of 21.1 and Italy with a percentage of 20.8 are already among the “very old” category. Turkey is expected to take place in the “very old” category in 2023-24 with a percentage of 10.2.
In order to support the growth by turning the young population into an advantage:
- Everyone both man and woman should participate in the labor force.
- The education level should increase (TR: 6.5 years, USA: 12.4/Germany: 12.2/South Korea: 11.6 and Japan 11.5 years)
- The elder and dependent population should decrease and
- Job opportunities should be created to the population participating in the labor force.
And these support new investment and growing economy.
